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The Pentagon has the choice of building one battleship or two cruisers. ONe battleship costs the same as two cruisers, but a cruiser is sufficient to carry out the navy's mission--if the cruiser survives to get close enough to the target. The battleship has a probability p of carrying out it's mission, whereas a cruiser only has probability of p/2. Whatever the outcome, the war ends and any surviving ships are scrapped. Which option is superior and why?
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